diff --git a/changelog.d/+gap-fill-outlier-missing-prevs.bugfix.md b/changelog.d/+gap-fill-outlier-missing-prevs.bugfix.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..76c5a059f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/changelog.d/+gap-fill-outlier-missing-prevs.bugfix.md
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Fix gap filling skipping outlier events that are missing their previous events. Contributed by @eleboucher.
diff --git a/src/service/rooms/event_handler/fetch_and_handle_outliers.rs b/src/service/rooms/event_handler/fetch_and_handle_outliers.rs
index e450b0d79..24ef24f54 100644
--- a/src/service/rooms/event_handler/fetch_and_handle_outliers.rs
+++ b/src/service/rooms/event_handler/fetch_and_handle_outliers.rs
@@ -310,9 +310,9 @@ impl super::Service {
 							.stream()
 							.fold(0_u8, |i, event_id| async move {
 								if self.services.timeline.pdu_exists(event_id).await {
-									i.expected_add(1)
-								} else {
 									i
+								} else {
+									i.expected_add(1)
 								}
 							})
 							.await;